“Hopefully, but unlikely" - this popular refrain of a Bulgarian song may be valid for the situation on the labor market in Bulgaria this year, despite the efforts of the government to reduce unemployment. The number of people without a job will probably not decrease, despite the measures collected in official documents such as the National Action Plan for Employment. European Funds would probably not help.

Calculations are very simple - you cannot reduce unemployment amid barely working economy that this year is expected to start recovering. Bulgarian Minister of Economy and Energy Dragomir Stoynev expects 2% growth of the economy. The expectations for the World Bank are for 1.7 per cent growth. Political instability and expected optimization of the administration also means reducing the number of employees. According to the Employment Agency last year unemployment reached 11.3 percent. Recent data show unemployment for the third quarter of 2013 was 12 percent. The government expects 13 percent of unemployment in 2014.

Measures in the National Action Plan for Employment, financed from the state budget would total 36 million euro.

Here is more from Iskren Angelov, Head of "Active labor market policy” in the Social Ministry.

“Some 22,000 people will be included in various programs and employment measures. 13,000 will receive training. Priority group for 2014 are unemployed people under 29 years of age, the long-term unemployed, people with disabilities and the unemployed over 50 years of age. Training and employment of young people under 25 is funded with priority. In 2014 training and employment will be provided for a total of about 34 000 young people."

Three new programs for employment start this year - one aims at increasing literacy and motivation of those who otherwise prefer social welfare over work. Another program creates jobs related to protecting the Bulgarian forest. 4.5 million euro will be spent for a program aimed at increasing employment among disabled people. A program for training and employment of refugees would also start.

Businesses in most cases, is skeptical when it comes to creating new jobs. In a study of Manpower about the attitudes of the business, 80 percent of employers answered they would not open new jobs. Most likely to create jobs are export-oriented companies and companies from the IT sector.

In 2014 many people will lose their jobs due to planned optimization in the administration. Minister of Finance Peter Tchobanov vows for higher salaries after the process is completed. But who will be those to stay and who will be laid off?

The Bulgarian Industrial Association says that if Europe unanimously adopted the proposal for a minimum monthly salary of 400 euro, unemployment would spike. However, the Bulgarian business has always opposed raising salaries of the employees. For years, however, they have applauded the reduction of payroll taxes, which means more money for the business. This however had a negative effect on the social security system.

English version: Alexander. Markov