The dramatic events in Ukraine over the last few days caused a series of statements of Bulgarian politicians, though the period was an official holiday here. President Rossen Plevneliev strongly condemned each form of violence, the threatening of peace and resulting hostility, due to the situation with the victims in Odessa. Foreign Minister Kristian Vigenin said what happened was monstrous, warning that the ongoing escalation of tension could be followed by a long period of instability. Defense Minister Nayden Angelov commented that despite the lack of a direct threat to the safety of Bulgaria, the government is monitoring carefully the situation, as the Bulgarians, living in Ukraine are endangered. Army people got worried too, which can be presumed by a statement of Head of Defense Gen. Simeon Simeonov, saying that the assessment of events in the Ukrainian will affect the updates of the Strategy on National Security. At the same time the defense minister rejected any possible participation of Bulgarian military personnel in a NATO operation as a probable response to the events, though one has never been planned so far.

There are reasons to be concerned.

The building of the All-Ukrainian Bulgarian Cultural Center in Odessa faced some damages, without being a target of an attack. No injured ethnic Bulgarians have been registered so far, although few have asked questions on eventual asylum in this country. There are about 300,000 ethnic Bulgarians in Ukraine that Bulgaria is sensitive to.

A long period of instability, as assumed by Minister Vigenin, would mean losses to this state, as Bulgaria totally depends on Russian gas supplies, transferred via the territory of Ukraine. Any eventual economic sanctions of the EU on Russia would cause a severing of economic relations with Bulgaria. Both northern states have such relations with this country.

The EU restrictions against Russia have already affected political ties. The Bulgarian foreign ministry banned Chair of Russian Duma Sergey Narishkin from a visit here due to the restriction measures, imposed by the EU to Narishkin, which include a prohibition for entering and transit passing through the territory of the member-states. The Russian Duma reacted sharply against this decision, which doesn’t give a positive forecast on the forthcoming visit of Bulgarian Parliamentary Chair Mikhail Mikhov to Moscow. Unofficial data says that Mikhov has reacted negatively to the official stance of the foreign ministry. If this is true, it means tension among the rows of the governing majority.

The Ukrainian events also have their effect on EU – Bulgaria relations. If the Union’s stance on Russia gets more radical, it would mean more difficulties to the implementation of the South Stream gas pipeline project. Bulgaria has contracted with the Russians the construction of the pipeline across its territory and has already got into a quarrel with the EU. The spring forecast of the EC has assumed that the dependence of this country on Russian gas supplies might turn into a burden for its economic growth.

A delayed economic growth would mean no additional money from the defense budget for the modernization and rearmament of the Bulgarian army. NATO  Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen voiced his criticism to Sofia two weeks ago, related to the necessity of an increased army budget and rearmament with modern western technologies.

Obviously the echo of the Ukrainian crisis in Bulgaria is not only serious, but also multidirectional in terms of economics, home policy and international relations.

English version: Zhivko Stanchev