This cold spring brought heavy rains to Bulgaria but also a flood of economic forecasts, all claiming to show most accurately the near future of the economy of this country. Despite the different shades and varying degrees of caution and uncertainty about the future, all forecasts read about forthcoming economic recovery and growth. Growth in Bulgaria will not reach the world average of 3.6 percent, according to the IMF, or 3.4% according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), but will still be more pronounced in comparison to the past year, reaching nearly twice as much as the average growth in the Euro Zone of 1.2 percent.

The season of macroeconomic forecasts for Bulgaria started with a report of the Ministry of Finance. Forecasts of the ministry are more optimistic compared to subsequent forecasts by the IMF, EC, The World Bank, EBRD, NGOs and even commercial banks. The forecast is more optimistic than the ministry’s own expectations from last year. While previously the ministry expected a GDP growth of 1.8 percent in 2014, this year the target was set to 2.1 percent.

The analysts of a large Austrian bank operating in Bulgaria also share the view of the ministry and expect economy to mark a 2-percent growth. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) says that growth in this country will be 1.9 percent. The expectations of the World Bank and the European Commission are more pessimistic, setting a target of 1.7 percent. The International Monetary Fund in Washington expects that GDP growth in Bulgaria will reach just 1.6 percent.

Besides inflation, budget deficit and debt, another important indicator of the current state and future of the Bulgarian economy is unemployment. The high unemployment rate is a serious issue for the whole of the EU. Despite the expected growth of the Bulgarian economy, all observers, including the Bulgarian Ministry of Finance say Bulgaria will not mark a significant improvement in fighting unemployment and its level will remain around 13 percent, which is way too much. The most optimistic analysts expect unemployment to fall from 13% to about 12.5%.

Which one of these macroeconomic forecasts will materialize and which will be closest to the truth will become clear when official statistics for 2014 are published.

 Statistics for the first quarter of 2014 show a modest GDP growth of 0.2 percent. Whether this would be enough to achieve the expected annual levels depends on quite unpredictable and uncertain international environment which affects the Bulgarian economy. One of the risks remains the crisis in Ukraine and the existing threats to energy supplies from Russia.

English version: Alexander Markov