The results of the European Parliament elections on May 25 proved to be a fiasco for the mandate holders, the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) despite the predictions of the polling agencies in the country, and deepened political instability in Bulgaria. The biggest political force in the country, GERB party, now in opposition, won a landslide victory 12 percent ahead of the BSP, putting to shame many sociologists who had predicted a photo finish between the two leading parties. The old right, as represented by the Reformist block, made a comeback and new players appeared on the political scene such as Bulgaria without Censorship and ABV – the Alternative for Bulgarian Revival. The National Front for the Salvation of Bulgaria also has a certain potential, unlike the dwindling, though still with a key role in the survival of the present parliament and government, nationalistic party Ataka. In fact, the ruling coalition does not have sufficient electoral support to stay in power. And the logical question arises – not whether but when there will be early general elections. Such a demand has already been raised by GERB and by all other parties that stand a chance of entering a new parliament. But another question comes to mind: what about sociologists in Bulgaria now? By all scientifically sound standards, the statistical error is below 3 percent, but Bulgarian sociologists “surprised” us with 12 percent. Prominent elections expert and mathematician Prof. Mihail Konstantinov comments for Radio Bulgaria:

“I don’t like this new political situation,” he says. “Hate speech is rife and the mud-slinging continues. No one is seeking to find fault with himself. Even after such a manifest political fiasco, no one is taking responsibility. Even after such a manifest fiasco of more than half of the sociological agencies, they have been continuing with their drivel, saying that they got it right “to some extent”. Poppycock! They didn’t! There were just two, three agencies that did, the others got it very wrong. It’s about time we started acting as normal human beings. If not, politicians in Bulgaria but everyone else as well, including sociologists will be in trouble.”

Are there grounds for early elections! Lyutvi Mestan, head of the co-ruling party the Movement for Rights and Freedoms dropped such hints, though in a very roundabout way…

“In themselves, the results of the European Parliament elections are not reason enough to demand early general election. But I would like to remind politicians and voters that last year, the electorate gave the Bulgarian Socialist Party and the Movement for Rights and Freedoms a four year term of office. This means there cannot and must not be early elections. In themselves, no mid-term election results give grounds for such a thing. But to my mind, if the ruling majority has any sense left, they will see that this administration is doomed to failure. And there must be early general elections, let’s say within one year at most. As things are, nothing can function.”

The mathematical analysis of the European Parliament elections shows that the Bulgarian Socialist Party - Movement for Rights and Freedoms coalition, plus Ataka accumulate under 40 percent of votes. De jure the National Assembly is legitimate, de facto it isn’t…

“At this moment in time, the number of people who gave their support to GERB plus the Reformist block is just a little over the number of people who voted for the BSP plus the Movement for Rights and Freedoms. But it is not clear which side the people who voted for Bulgaria without Censorship, for example, will take. So, it looks like there is parity. And if, in consequence, there were to be elections right now the result would be a complete mess. There will probably be six parties entering the National Assembly. There will be impossible coalitions, or rather – possible but totally unscrupulous. And I don’t think it will be for the best. First, the dust must settle. Or we should opt for a wisely-chosen date for holding early elections in late autumn or after the winter is over. But if the coming winter is severe, then the ruling coalition is in real trouble. This year they got off easy, because the winter in Bulgaria was very mild, though that is not such a good thing for other reasons. But a severe winter lasting 5, 6 months next year may mean they won’t know where to run and hide. So, the ruling coalition really must mind their step and make the right decision. One way or another, both politicians and the public, we are all in the same boat. And you can’t bore a hole into one end of the boat to do harm to your opponent, because we will all sink to the bottom together.”

English Milena Daynova