As a matter of fact this analysis was supposed to be about the, as yet, undisclosed presidential nominee of the ruling party GERB, when, in a televised interview, Prime Minister Boyko Borissov, a harried look on his face, said that Bulgaria was in an extremely complicated position in terms of foreign policy. With these words he was, perhaps, aiming to prepare the public for what the figure of the next president and commander-in-chief of the armed forces would be like - as a guarantor of peace and calm in the country. Or perhaps he saw his own self in this role. Whether this is so or not is still too early to tell, though one thing is certain – from this affray Borissov is hardly likely to emerge unscathed - as prime minister or as president.

The much-expected meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and the President of Turkey Recep Erdogan took place last week in St. Petersburg. Albeit indirectly, Turkey’s future relations with the EU will hang on the outcome of these negotiations – against the backdrop of the country’s membership negotiations which have been dragging on for 53 years. St. Petersburg riveted the attention of Brussels, but also of Sofia because the talks there also revolved around energy projects, something that very much concerns Bulgaria. As with any other country, energy supply is vital to Bulgaria. And when 95 percent of the country’s energy needs are provided for by Russia, the geopolitical perspective is very strong. This energy dependence is not to the liking of Bulgaria; it is not to the liking of the country’s partners in Europe or in America either. This is the main reason why Bulgaria’s energy policy has been changing so often for decades, depending on whether there is a socialist (pro-Russian) or a conservative (pro-western) government in Sofia. When 14 years ago former Bulgarian Socialist Party leader Georgi Parvanov was elected president of the country, this signaled the start of a new era in Bulgaria – the era of the “grand slam”; “grand slam” was what he called the three big energy projects – the Belene nuclear power plant, the South Stream gas pipeline and the Burgas-Alexandroupolis oil pipeline. Not one of these three projects ever came to anything, but all three continue to be in the political limelight to this very day. Right-wing politicians in this country, but also USA and the EU are very much against them. To begin with, Prime Minister Borissov sided with the opponents of the “grand slam”. At a recent conference with American businessmen in Sofia he even stated, with pride, that Bulgaria had blocked the Russian projects. Yet just before the Putin-Erdogan meeting, Borissov changed course. Based on the EC’s position for respect of European law, the Bulgarian Prime Minister allowed for the building of Belene NPP and even reviving South Stream and Burgas-Alexandroupolis.

This sharp turn in energy policy can be accounted for by fears of emerging rivalry on the regional market from Russia and Turkey. If Moscow and Ankara, until recently at loggerheads, really do patch up their relations, Bulgaria will find itself in a no-win situation. The talks in St. Petersburg included a new nuclear power plant in Turkey that would be capable of meeting the electricity needs of the region, thereby blasting all hope of Bulgaria’s exporting electricity from a future nuclear power plant at Belene. The same thing is expected to happen with regard to South Stream which has had a surrogate called Turkish Stream since December 2014. After his talks with Erdogan in St. Petersburg, the Russian president stated he knew of Bulgaria’s intention to revive the gas pipeline project but said he wanted “ironclad guarantees” it would be put through, seeing as Moscow had invested and lost so much time and money. Words that do not carry even a modicum of approbation.

Against the background of the thaw in relations between Russia and Turkey, until recently irreconcilably embroiled, Bulgaria will inevitably take a fall, and hard. That should come as no surprise – in our part of the world continuity in politics is rarely seen as a way to succeed in pursuance of national interests. For Prime Minister Borissov, who has not made up his mind yet whether to run for president in the autumn or not, being elected president would give him a breather, leaving the question who will be left holding the hot potatoes unanswered.