Recently Bulgaria's outgoing Premier Boyko Borissov handed in his resignation andBulgaria entered a cabinet crisis, which will probably last until the spring of 2017. In other words, this country is now facing a period of political instability. The national economy is in an upsurge, but most experts contend that it has already reached its peak and from now on the economic growth will slow down, which poses a series of risks to the country's future government and business.

Bulgaria's Ministry of Finance revised its forecast about the country's economic growth in 2016 from 2.6% of the gross domestic product to 3.2%. Its projections show that the economy will slow down a bit in 2017 to 2.9% of the GDP. It turned out that the forecast of the Finance Ministry encouraged local business.

According to one of Bulgaria's biggest employers' organizations the Bulgarian Industrial Capital Association, the local business remains optimistic about 2017 even in times of political instability. Most companies are expecting that their business will develop positively next year despite the multiple uncertainties in the country.

A survey of the Bulgarian Industrial Capital Association about the business sentiment of its members shows that most of the companies are expecting a good 2017 for the country's economy. Their forecasts show that sales will go up. Moreover, they are planning to increase salaries and hire new personnel. Speaking of workforce, we must note that one of the biggest concerns of the local business is related to the lack of qualified and motivated staff in many spheres - industry, agriculture, services and tourism. The Bulgarian employers admit that they are inclined to raise salaries, because of the high demand and low supply of highly qualified personnel on the labor market. However, the local business realized that the problems on the labor market cannot be solved through wage increase only. On the contrary, the authorities must make reforms in the country's education system, in order to meet the demands of the local employers. In this case the business is talking about half-way measures, which do not yield the necessary results. However, things are unlikely to change for the better in the next six months, when several cabinets are expected to govern Bulgaria.

The business is optimistic about the country's economy in 2017, because it gained momentum and the country placed second in the whole EU in terms of economic growth this year. That is why the political instability in Bulgaria will not cause any significant economic turbulence in 2017, most company managers contend.

It is hard to say whether their forecasts will be right. Some international economic experts voiced slightly different forecasts about the development of the Bulgarian economy in the short run. However, most of them are unanimous that Bulgaria's economy and GDP will grow, productivity will gradually increase and the salaries of the personnel will also see an increase. The economic growth is expected to exceed 2.5% of the GDP, the public finance will remain sound and the revenues of the local business will improve. It looks like the Bulgarian economy has matured enough to sustain the political cataclysms typical of the modern democratic societies.

English version: Kostadin Atanasov