Stable instability is what awaits us in 2017, but there will be a balance of power. This is the forecast Nina Dyulgerova, professor of international relations made at a press conference “2017 – highlights and changes in geopolitics and security”, that took place at the Bulgarian news agency, BTA.

“Globally, there is a change and it will be appreciable. It is connected with the election results in USA, but also in Moldova and in Bulgaria. In the Balkans there is a high degree of insecurity. There will be a stable instability, but a balance will be sought universally. Globally, there will be acts of terrorism, military conflicts, but one thing is certain – there won’t be a world war. There will be local conflicts. For two years, a radical version of changing the world has been taking hold in key points that shape its present and its future. The USA will continue with its comments on how weak the EU is and that we must stand up to Russia. We must seek to restructure local and global action, configurations and processes. On January 20, 2017 the world will step over into the next stage of its development, in which multimillionaires will be explaining what they want and will be doing their best to make it happen. Rules will be set down that must be followed. In recent decades neoliberalism demonstrated its principal failing – the rule of not following rules. In the coming months, the EU will be facing insurmountable problems connected with migration. The national interests will emerge as fundamental to all of the EU members. I do not think we should be afraid of Turkey-EU relations. Turkey’s front line is not the EU.”

According to diplomat Simeon Nikolov from the Centre for Security and International Studies, in 2016 we witnessed information warfare. Disinformation and swaying public opinion is what underpins what we call hybrid warfare. This is a phenomenon that will continue through 2017, the expert says and adds that information warfare has a positive side to it – it is much more difficult to manipulate data, without this becoming public knowledge very quickly. The upcoming elections in Germany, France and Holland will also influence geopolitics in Europe and the world. Simeon Nikolov says that 2017 will be a “difficult year of tension”, a year filled with challenges but also opportunities. According to the diplomat, some of the most difficult changes we have to go through are in our minds and in our fundamental perceptions and it will take the world a long time to pass over from one state to another.

“In 2017 Bulgaria will be hemmed in by an array of unstable processes – an increasingly unstable and chaotic Turkey to the southeast, military tension in the region of the Black Sea, an economically unstable Ukraine to the northeast, military preparations in some countries to the north, instability in the western Balkans, a flow of refugees from the south and terrorism. Stability in Turkey is vital to the entire region and to Bulgaria. The outlook for 2017 is negative, even though Erdogan has been demonstrating his resolve. There will be more acts of terror, like the one the year started with on January 1 in Istanbul, for a variety of reasons. Turkey must rethink its anti-terrorist strategy and it should take a good look at itself instead of blaming NATO, EU, USA. The gulf dividing civil society will widen. Opposition does exist in the country. The terrorist acts in 2016 fueled the sense of insecurity everywhere and that is something that will continue in 2017,” says Simeon Nikolov.

English version: Milena Daynova