There are still no final results after the Sunday-held early parliamentary elections, but preliminary data give us enough reasons to state that the situation is more than vague.

The ruling GERB party is first again and with this advance of 5 – 6 percent, not within the frames of the statistical mistake, predicted by sociologists. However, the task of GERB for the forming of a new cabinet is more complicated than before, taking into consideration the obvious dropping out of the Reformist Bloc from the next parliament.

The socialists come second, but they seem happy with the doubled results on the 2014 parliamentary polls. However, this impetus took the socialist candidate Rumen Radev to the presidential position during the previous election, but it wasn’t enough to make the socialists No1 this time.

The United Patriots nationalistic coalition was ranked third and replaced the ethnic Movement for Rights and Freedoms from the so far strong position of an everlasting balancer in Bulgarian politics. However, the MRF is just one step behind the patriots, which makes its fourth position a significant success, as we bear in mind the appearance of a new political force which competes for the votes of the Turkish electorate in this country – DOST.

The Reformist Bloc, viewed by many as the most authentic rightist force, fails to take a seat in the parliament, at least for the moment. Things would be quite different, if the percentage achieved could rely on the ones of New Republic and Yes, Bulgaria, but those chances failed.

Parties are now avoiding the revealing of their concrete intentions for the moment, as the ratio of the political forces still remains unclear. GERB leader Boyko Borissov didn’t say anything different from the statement that his party should be the leading force in the new government. Taking into consideration the firm denial of socialist leader Kornelia Ninova to enter a broad coalition with GERB, Borissov has no other choice, but to try a coalitional center-right cabinet with United Patriots and the Volya /Will/ party. The ‘patriots’ may enter a joint rule with GERB if a common program is achieved and Volya leader Vesselin Mareshki hinted that he was ready to enter one. MRF leader Mustafa Karadaya also hinted that in the name of Bulgaria’s stability his movement could have a dialogue with GERB, hoping it had learnt its lesson in two unfinished terms.

In case of an eventual failure of GERB to form a coalitiol cabinet and in the name of stability, Kornelia Ninova would also try to form one, she stated. Yet before the elections the ‘patriots’ claimed that in case a common program existed they might enter a coalition with the socialists, while Mareshki even expressed his preference for an alliance with the leftist ones. In such a scenario however, the government would be a center-left one.

In a situation of parity between GERB and BSP before the elections the observers assumed both options. Things will develop from now on, depending on the final poll results, the constituting of the new parliament and the constitutional procedures for the establishing of a cabinet. At the moment everyone has hopes that a government will be formed by the end of April.

English version: Zhivko Stanchev