Bulgaria’s gross domestic product is to decrease by 4% in 2020 and then regain ground with 4.1% growth in 2021, the International Monetary Fund forecasts in its latest World Economic Outlook report.

There is a 60% probability that the decline in Bulgaria’s GDP in 2020 will be between 3.2% and 8%. The decline will most likely be 5.5%, the macroeconomic forecast of the Bulgarian National Bank reads. Forecasts are more likely to be made by astrologists than economists, because in the middle of October it is not clear yet what restrictions may be introduced because of the coronavirus pandemic, Professor Boyan Durankev commented for BNR. Consumption in Bulgaria declined by 3% on an annual basis, Boyan Durankev pointed out. Professor Durankev expects difficult winter for the country and restrictions on government spending.