Due to shrinking consumption and export, Bulgaria’s economy will slow down its growth down to 1.8% in 2023, according to the Ministry of Finance spring macroeconomic forecast. In 2022, the growth rate was 3.4%.
Due to the war in Ukraine an alternative scenario has been developed, in which the GDP growth is projected to drop down to 0.5%. The average annual inflation rate will be 8.7%. Due to an expected decline in the prices of some foodstuffs and their share in consumption, inflation is expected to shrink by the end of the year down to 5.6%, the analysis reads. The annual unemployment rate is expected to be 4.1%, a minimum decline by 0.2% compared to 2022.
On the basis of to the spring forecast, in April the Finance Ministry is to present a draft budget for 2023, and submit it to the newly elected parliament for discussion.
Bulgaria has the opportunity to reap the full benefits of eurozone membership , but this will require stronger fiscal discipline, effective management of transition risks, and accelerated structural reforms , the International Monetary Fund (IMF)..
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