Fitch Ratings has affirmed Bulgaria's long-term foreign-currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BBB' with a positive outlook.
Bulgaria intends to request a reassessment of its progress on convergence criteria in 2H24, which should allow for eurozone entry later in 2025. In Fitch's view, Bulgaria could comply with the price stability criterion in 4Q24 at the earliest, conditional on inflation developments across the EU.
Bulgaria is on course to meet all other euro-adoption nominal criteria (public finances, interest rate and exchange rate). Nonetheless, a lack of stable government and potentially lengthy coalition negotiations could delay the eurozone entry beyond 2025. Overall, we consider euro adoption as supportive to the rating, Fitch writes.
The Agency expects average HICP to be 3.3% in 2024 and 2.9% in 2025, down from 8.6% in 2023. Fitch expects real GDP growth to accelerate to 2.4% in 2024 and further to 3.1% in 2025.
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