Bulgaria’s real GDP growth is expected to stand at 2.1% in 2024, indicates the macroeconomic forecast of the Bulgarian National Bank (BNB) in June. Bulgaria’s real GDP growth is expected to stand at 2.1 per cent in 2024, driven by the positive contribution of domestic demand, while net exports and changes in inventories are expected to make a negative contribution. Real GDP growth is projected to accelerate to 3.2 per cent in 2025 before moderating to 2.9 per cent in 2026, with this dynamics being largely driven by the set profile of public investment and related imports. The BNB’s forecast from March projected an economic growth for this year of 2.2%, and 3.4% for next year. The main drivers for the revision in the GDP forecast and its main components are related to incoming additional reporting data on economic activity in the first quarter of 2024 and in April–May 2024. According to the technical assumptions, the growth of external demand for Bulgarian goods and services in 2024 will be lower than projected in the March 2024 macroeconomic forecast.
Moody's expects Bulgaria to join the Eurozone no later than the beginning of 2026. According to the rating agency, the growth of the Bulgarian economy in 2024 will be 2.9%. The ongoing domestic political crisis and the likelihood of new early elections..
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