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Gallup International Balkan

7 formations are certain to enter parliament, one is on the brink, one still has a chance, a survey shows

31% will go to the polls
Photo: Gallup International/BNR

A snapshot of the last days of the campaign, as reported by respondents, shows that the expected turnout for the 27 October vote is 31.1%. The hypothetical expectation is for around 2 million people to vote, with 3.4% of voters likely to use the "I support no one" option. 

The data is based on a survey conducted by Gallup International Balkan for the Bulgarian National Radio. The survey, conducted with a representative sample of 1,007 adults via face-to-face tablet interviews between October 10 and 21, provides a snapshot of public attitudes right before the election. It is not a prediction of the election outcome; shifts in the standings of political parties are still expected due to factors such as last-minute decision-making by some voters and mobilisation on polling day.

According to the snapshot, GERB-SDS would be supported by 26.1 per cent of the electorate, We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria (PP-DB) by 16.2 per cent and Vazrazhdane by 14.9 per cent (a race for second and third place is expected between the two formations). 

The Alliance for Rights and Freedoms is on 7.9 per cent, but the upward trend of DPS-New Beginning has virtually levelled the support a week before the vote - 7.6 per cent. However, the final days of the campaign could change this. BSP-United Left would have 7.1%. Support for There is Such a People (ITN) is stable at 6.2%. Apart from these formations, MECH with 4.1% and Velichie with 3.8% are on the edge of the 4% barrier and have a good chance of breaking it.

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