The tariffs imposed on European goods by the Trump administration are expected to have both direct and indirect effects on Bulgarian exports. 

The Ministry of Economy and Industry has calculated the direct impact at €468 million, while indirect effects are projected to reach €158 million. These figures were cited by Minister Petar Dilov during his hearing before the Parliamentary Committee on Economic Policy and Innovation. The forecasts were developed in collaboration with the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences (BAS), as reported by BTA.

Dilov specified that the ministry is planning a number of measures to support businesses. These include preparing analyses and information, since not all companies assess the risks or degree of impact, according to the minister. Other measures involve maintaining an active dialogue with industry organisations, encouraging exports to alternative markets both within and outside Europe, and strengthening the role of the Trade and Economic Relations Services in identifying new opportunities.

Bulgaria's exports to the US account for only 3.3% of the country’s total exports, suggesting that potential direct losses are relatively limited. However, the country will experience indirect losses in addition to direct export losses. A significant proportion of Bulgarian exports to the EU and other markets consist not of final goods, but of intermediate goods that trading partners incorporate into their exports to the US.

Bulgaria's exports to the US represent 7% of its total exports to third countries, and these exports are fragmented and sporadic. Over a ten-year period, only 33% of commodity groups appear on Bulgaria's export list to the US every year, meaning that 67% of the list changes annually.