At the end of last week, Bulgarian Socialist Party chair Sergey Stanishev announced the party would be electing a new leader at an extraordinary congress at the end of July. At the end of June, Stanishev confounded his own party when he handed in his resignation as MP at the Bulgarian National Assembly, to become an MEP. “Confounded” because before the European Parliament elections he vowed he was only heading the Socialist Party’s candidate list so as to better its chances; right after the election returns were made public, he stated he would withdraw his name, as there was enough work to be done here in Bulgaria (i.e. as chairman of the Bulgarian Socialist Party). So, the news that came over the weekend that a new chairman of the BSP would be elected also came as a surprise. But piling surprise on surprise breeds confusion and raises a host of questions.

One of them is: why will the BSP elect a new chairman, seeing as it was only a week ago that the members of its Executive Bureau made it clear Stanishev would continue at the post? The change is probably prompted by the violent collisions within the party and the growing discontent with its current leadership. And if this is so, then the change is under duress. An informal meeting of prominent figures from the BSP that took place recently was also a form of duress; the meeting was attended also by several people, until recently close to Stanishev himself.

Another arising question is: why will the chairman of the BSP be replaced in mid-July and not immediately?  Perhaps because Sergey Stanishev’s underlying intention is to stand for EU Commissioner? There is no official confirmation of this, though there are certain indications this may be so. Prime Minister Plamen Oresharski stated he would be holding consultations with the new President of the European Commission on a Bulgarian nomination for EU Commissioner on July 16. This is probably the reason why he is not handing in his resignation prior to that date, and states his intention of doing so between July 23 and 25. This time frame almost coincides with the transfer of power within the BSP, announced by Sergey Stanishev.

The replacement of the party’s leader, announced by the BSP chairman himself, rather than by any collective party body, coincides with the tensions inside the party. Stanishev hinted that he may be replaced by current Minister of Economy and Energy Dragomir Stoynev, but that is not a nomination without an alternative. National Assembly deputy chair Maya Manolova also stated she was ready to assume the post. Stressing that any leader of the Bulgarian Socialist Party must clearly state whether he or she is subject to any economic commitments, Manolova was categorical that she is not dependent on and is in no way committed to any business interests. What she was probably implying is that Stoynev is. Other candidates are likely to emerge by the end of July.

The tensions that arose right after the announcement of a power shift within the party was made, indicate that the battle for the post of chairman of the BSP will be a hotly contested one. It seems clear that there will be a leadership change; what is unclear is what this change will mean for the policy of the party and for political life in Bulgaria. Stanishev’s stepping down means an end to a 13-year long period in which the Bulgarian Socialist Party lost 10 elections and formed coalitions that have left a deep negative imprint on the country. What the socialists need to do now is make an in-depth analysis of the situation and draw the respective conclusions.

English version: Milena Daynova