Are the Balkans under the influence of Russia? And what does that mean for the Western Balkan countries’ European integration? These questions have arisen because of a surprising diplomatic scandal that broke out between Greece and Russia. The government in Athens decided to expel two Russian diplomats and banned two other from entering the country. Measures have been taken because of information that the diplomats have made a number of coordinated attempts to increase Russia's influence in Greece when resolving the dispute over the name of Macedonia was concerned. Reaching an agreement over the issue was one of the conditions for opening the road to Macedonia for EU and NATO integration.

Russia described the diplomatic scandal as a "rough provocation," which was hardly the work of Greece alone. "Of course, this is an external intervention," Vladimir Chizhov, the permanent representative ambassador of Russia in the EU, said. The spokesperson of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, described the Greek accusations as gossip statements. Experts commented that tension is raised also by the protection of US interests in the area. And they are directly related to NATO expansion in the Balkans, which is not to the taste of Russia. Analyst Dimitar Bechev, who has focused on processes on the Balkans and Russia and who is a counselor at the Atlantic Council in Washington, described Russia's resistance to membership of the Balkan countries in the North Atlantic Alliance as a conjunctural one.

"No strategic interests of Russia have been affected, as these countries are not direct neighbors to the Russian Federation. Russia's security is not jeopardized in any way. The Balkans are one of the fields for showing opposition to the West, which goes back to 2013-2014 alongside the crisis with Ukraine. Russia is using all sorts of options to stop NATO and EU policy, and in this region, unfortunately, the conditions for that are right - there are many gaps, many opportunities Russia can use to implement its policy," Bechev said.

According to him, the main battle for the Balkans is not geopolitical, but is related to local policy:

"It is also related to problems we have in Bulgaria – the development of democracy, the extent to which the rule of law can be established, the freedom of media and the extent to which civic society can impose its voice on political elites."

Diplomat Valentin Radomirski, who follows the events on the Balkans and in Russia, sees the situation in the region in a different way.

"Russia's historical interests towards the Balkans have always existed, and probably will continue to exist, but Russia is, in my opinion, incapable of implementing them as actively as my colleague analysts tend to describe the threat."

According to Radomirski, weakened Russia can achieve its interests only in the so- called "post-Soviet space" in Asia.

"In my opinion, Russia is a geopolitical world power; one of the three centers in the emerging new, multi polar world. But in economic terms and especially in financial terms it is a dwarf. That's what makes it introverted," Valentin Radomirski says.

English: Alexander Markov