Fitch Ratings has affirmed Bulgaria's long-term foreign-currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BBB' with a positive outlook.
Bulgaria intends to request a reassessment of its progress on convergence criteria in 2H24, which should allow for eurozone entry later in 2025. In Fitch's view, Bulgaria could comply with the price stability criterion in 4Q24 at the earliest, conditional on inflation developments across the EU.
Bulgaria is on course to meet all other euro-adoption nominal criteria (public finances, interest rate and exchange rate). Nonetheless, a lack of stable government and potentially lengthy coalition negotiations could delay the eurozone entry beyond 2025. Overall, we consider euro adoption as supportive to the rating, Fitch writes.
The Agency expects average HICP to be 3.3% in 2024 and 2.9% in 2025, down from 8.6% in 2023. Fitch expects real GDP growth to accelerate to 2.4% in 2024 and further to 3.1% in 2025.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) forecasts an acceleration in Bulgaria's economic growth from 1.8% in 2023 to 2.5% in 2024 and to 2.9% in 2025 as public investment increases along with EU funds. OECD expects inflation..
MPs have agreed to extend the 0% VAT on bread and flour, which was due to expire on June 30, until the end of 2024. Under the GERB proposal, traders will be allowed to add a maximum of 15% profit margin on bread, but the proposal is limited to the most..
Bulgargaz expects the price of natural gas next month to be 5 to 6% lower as compared to April. During an open meeting at the Energy and Water Regulatory Commission, the initially proposed price of EUR29.12 per megawatt-hour was reduced to EUR28.36. The..
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